Karnataka Election Results Boosts The Opposition Parties
Cartoon by John Gracias inspired by Peter Seeger’s song Where Have All the Flowers Gone.
May 19, 2023
Since coming to power in Karnataka in 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continued a political strategy of trying to inflame anti-Muslim sentiment to try and win a majority of the Hindu votes.
Among the tactics used, the state government banned Muslim girls and women in school and colleges from wearing a hijab (headscarf); there was a campaign asking Hindus to boycott businesses owned by Muslims; and attempts were made to ban the use of loudspeakers at Mosques.
There were also attacks on Christians and churches in the southern state. Kunal Kamra and Munawer Faruqui, comedians who joke about Modi and the BJP, had to cancel shows after the venues in Bengaluru, the state capital, faced threats of physical attacks. Kannada actor Chetan Ahimsa was arrested by the city police for questioning claims made by Hindu nationalists.
Kunal Kamra, comedian, who had to cancel his show in Bangalore
The head offices of many Indian information technology companies, including giants Infosys and Wipro, as well as the main Indian operations of Google, Microsoft and other global technology companies are in Bengaluru, also known as Bangalore.
Modi was eager that the BJP retain power in the only Southern state it ruled. In the week before the May 10 elections, he spoke at 25 rallies and events in the state, including at some locations where flower petals covered his path.
In last week’s election, the BJP was ousted from power, securing only 66 out of a total 224 seats. More than 80% of Karnataka’s 68 million population are Hindus. BJP’s share of votes was 36%, the same as in the previous 2018 election. This indicates that the party’s strategy of stoking anti-Muslim sentiment failed to attract additional Hindu votes.
The vote share of the Congress party, which won the election with 135 seats, rose by more than a tenth to 43%. Last week, much of the additional votes for the Congress came from Hindus who switched from supporting the Janata Dal (S), another opposition party which represents the Vokkaligas, a warrior caste.
This three-way split of Hindu votes in Karnataka in favor of the Congress party, and not in favor of the BJP, is a rarity since Modi came to power at the national level in 2014. In addition to trying to inflame anti-Muslim sentiment, another key BJP electoral strategy is splitting the opposition votes.
Last year, for instance, the BJP won more than two thirds of the seats in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) legislature with just 41% of the votes. The Samajwadi Party and its allies, the major opponent of the BJP in the northern state, received 35% of the votes but won less than a third of the seats.
Clearly, based on the relative share of votes of the two main contestants, the BJP once again benefitted from a split of the anti-BJP votes. The major role in the vote split was played by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). It came in third with about 13% of the votes - that of the Dalits, or lower castes - but won only one seat.
Indeed, splitting the opposition votes was a key election strategy of the BJP leaders. They promoted BSP’s Mayawati as a leader of “political relevance” in the state, to try and boost her votes.
After the election results were announced, Mayawati denied that her party was “the BJP’s B-team.” Yet, there is speculation over if, and how, she may be rewarded by the BJP, or its supporters, for successfully splintering the opposition votes and enabling the BJP to win.
With a population of around 230 million and 80 seats in parliament, UP is the key state to winning the national elections in India, which is scheduled to be held in 2024. The other key state is Bihar, with a population of 127 million and 40 seats.
Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar and head of a regional opposition party, is in talks with other opposition leaders to set up a single candidate against the BJP in each of the 542 parliamentary seats in the 2024 elections. So far, he has got favorable responses from Rahul Gandhi, the effective leader of the Congress Party, Mamta Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal and head of the Trinamool Congress, and others.
Kumar plans to attend the swearing-in of the Congress Chief Minister of Karnataka. In a tweet he wrote, "Heartiest congratulations and good wishes to the Congress upon its victory, with a clear majority, in Karnataka assembly elections."
Munawer Faruqui, comedian, who had to cancel his show in Bangalore